Can other asset classes outperform the equity market over the long haul?

The volatility in equities, both local and global, has prompted many investors to exit equities and shift to other asset classes such as gold and commodities. But is this a desirable shift? Can other asset classes outperform the equity market over the long haul?

In this edition of the ET Investor's Guide Quarterly Mutual Fund Tracker, our panel of experts provides a perspective on the state of the market and their views on other asset classes, in interviews with ET.

QUESTIONS
Q1: Where is the Indian equity market headed given the current global uncertainties?

Q2: How will equity investments fare as an asset class?

Q3: How will the global equity market perform?

Q4: Will gold as an asset class outperform?

Q5: Will real estate investments pay off?

Q6: Is commodity investment a sensible option?

Q7: How much should an investor set aside for personal investment?

ANSWERS

SANDESH KIRKIRE, Chief Executive Officer, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management

1. We have seen these similar market levels in 2007 last quarter. But if you see the valuations, the market is much cheaper today. The domestic consumption part of the economy is doing well. What, however, is not doing well is domestic investment, especially in the infrastructure space.

And a lot of reasons can be blamed for it - policy paralysis, high interest rates resulting in corporate India going slow with projects etc. But from a retail investors' perspective, these are the times one should be looking at for investing for a long period.

2. Buying equity means buying ownership of the company and for an owner shortterm hiccups should not be a great botheration. If investors look at the performance of systematic investing in equity MFs over 8-10 year period, huge wealth has been created. Investors should look at that kind of a time frame. If you do not have that kind of an investment horizon, you should not be looking at equity.

3. One needs to select a right market to invest. Developed markets struggle to outperform the emerging ones. India is one of the fastest-growing economies. So I guess majority of investment should be centred here. But some exposure can be taken in the international markets.

4. Gold as a commodity has no use other than hedging. Unlike other commodities, it has no commercial usage. One cannot put a lot of money in gold but some investment is desired as gold is a hedge to global financial markets.

5. Real Estate is not accessable to a retail investor. You have real estate funds that are not retail in nature. As far as physical purchase is concerned, it is difficult to transact in property. I am not sure if real estate is a viable investment option for a retail investor. If one is buying for capital appreciation, firstly it is difficult to liquidate and secondly this asset class may not see growth for a long time.

6. Commodities are purely leverage. When one is buying commodities, one is buying future. The impact on correction is massive. It's like borrowing money to play in the market. I don't think a retail investor should even think about it. Commodity prices are influenced by something happening in some part of the globe. To illustrate, oil demand has gone up 3% from October 2008 till date but oil prices are up 300%. This financialisation of commodities market is harmful.

7. About 50-60% of my portfolio is allocated to Indian equities while 35-40% is in fixed income products that include bank deposits. Investment in gold would be around 5%.

SHANKARAN NAREN, Chief Investment Officer, ICICI Prudential Asset Management

1. The market will be volatile due to the events in Europe. As far as the domestic economy is concerned, the monsoon has been the single biggest positive phenomenon, which has helped agricultural production. But high crude oil prices are clearly a negative for the economy. The direct tax collections have also been disappointing. As far as inflation is concerned, our guess is that the worst is over and the rates should move southwards by March 12.

2. Valuations are pretty attractive in the domestic market today. This is a good opportunity for investor to increase their allocation to equity systematically though SIPs and STPs. Overall investment trend in India shows that Indian investors are grossly under invested in equities vis-a-vis other asset classes.

3. In a volatile scenario, the more number of asset classes one has diversified the finances into, the better. Certainly, one should allocate investment in both domestic as well as international markets. This will give you a different pay off.

4. Gold is an asset class, which does well when global economies get into trouble and poorly when globally economies are fairing better. Although it is not a very new asset class for Indians, a view on this asset, for investment allocation is not very easy.

5. Real estate as an asset class is for the affluent. The prices are off the roof not only in the metros but also in the other smaller cities making this asset out of bound for most investors. My guess is that retail investors should look at equities as an investment avenue instead.

Having not delivered in the past four years, valuations in the equity market have become quite attractive. Alternatively, they can also look at fixed income instruments, at least till the time the interest rates begin to cool off.

6. It is difficult to comment on commodities as a pure asset class though we do invest in stocks of companies related to commodities.

7. Equity, both domestic and international, form the core of my investment portfolio followed by fixed income products. I do not invest in real estate and gold. Moreover, being unsure of commodities as an asset class, I have kept myself far away from it.

ASHU SUYASH, Country Head & Managing Director, India, Fidelity Worldwide Investments
1. The markets will be range bound for a while. But what is important here is that we do not anticipate any 2008 like downfall and this gives a lot of opportunities to the investors to invest provided they can stomach the volatility.

2. Clearly you cannot expect 60-70% kind of returns that you had after the recovery, but if you had to look at beating the inflation, which itself is 9%, no guaranteed fixed return product adjusted for tax is going to give a positive upside. Taking that into account, the mindset needs to take on board certain risk. And if one is ready to take on board this risk and volatility, equities are still appealing.

3. You cannot put everything in India nor all in the international market. Last year India was among one of the best performing markets, today it is among one of the worst performers. FIIs are optimistic on emerging markets and not only India. India's economic growth rates are very high today but the base is small compared to the US. Developed economies with large base and slow growth rate are not as volatile as we are. International equities can thus be considered for diversification.

4. Today everybody is willing to invest in gold without giving a thought that how soon are we going to see a similar rise. Gold deserves some allocation but one cannot go overboard investing in gold. While gold has outperformed, it has not outperformed equities over a longer haul. Investment in gold is a flight to safety and not to generate wealth.

5. Real estate for me is the necessity to own a house. Beyond that, I think there is nothing like mark to market in real estate because it is one of the most opaque markets and very difficult to liquidate in times of need. So, the big gains that we see on property will be of no use if one really needs the money but is unable to sell the property.

Unfortunately there are not enough liquid financial asset classes linked to real estate. So while real estate does deserve merit in the overall net worth of the investor, but beyond that I would personally worry if I had to put my retirement money in a house.

6. I doubt if retail investors in our country really understands commodity as an asset class. One should not invest in something one is unsure about and where you neither have historical data nor forecasts.

7. I am predominantly a mutual fund person. The largest allocation of my portfolio goes to equity mutual funds, including some offshore products available in India. For fixed income, I have a roughly even allocation to cash funds and bank deposits and a small percentage allocated to gold.

 NAVNEET MUNOT, Chief Investment Officer, SBI Asset Management

1. The equity market is expected to remain volatile on account of the events in the euro zone as well as the macro economic headwinds in the domestic market. However, while markets will continue to be range-bound, the valuations currently are fairly attractive for longterm investment point of view.

2. Given the kind of volatility, overall allocation to equities has gone down over the past couple of months in favour of other asset classes like gold, real estate and fixed income. Investors, however, should use the current volatility to their advantage and build their equity portfolios, as valuations are extremely attractive.

3. For retail investors, given the longterm opportunity in India, the focus should be domestic market. However, high net worth individuals, who have a larger portfolio and need to diversify to different geographies can invest 5-10% of their portfolio in international equity market.

4. It would be foolish to look at Gold as an investment option for absolute returns now since it has seen a lot of run-up already. However, one may use it as a hedge in their portfolio against any major turmoil in the capital market. So in my view, an allocation of 4-8% should more than suffice.

5. It's difficult to generalise on investment in real estate. It depends on many parameters like the location of the property. Moreover, liquidity is always an issue with this asset class. Notwithstanding the fact that real estate has witnessed a lot of capital appreciation over the past few years, it is nevertheless a difficult and inconvenient investment option.

6. Commodity as an asset class is a good investment. However, being cyclical in nature, it makes sense for a retail investor to invest only if he or she closely tracks its movement. Another issue with investing in commodities is the absence of easy accessibility. Except for Gold ETFs, we do not have good vehicles to facilitate transaction in commodities.

7. Nearly 50% of my savings go to equities and a major chunk of the rest to fixed-income products. Gold is only for hedging and I allocate roughly 2-4% to this asset class.

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/10706341.cms?prtpage=1