Equity markets go through extremely good and weak periods.
It's based on what point in time you set the valuation. We are in an extremely
challenging local environment and that has impacted the performance of key
companies. SATISH RAMANATHAN, HEAD, EQUITIES, SUNDARAM MUTUAL FUND
Managing equity in uncertain times is a challenge for any
fund manager. In an interview with Business Line Mr Satish Ramanathan, Head of
Equities, Sundaram Mutual Fund, spoke about the underperforming sectors and
about the performance of Sundaram funds that have exposure to these sectors.
Excerpts from the interview:
Infrastructure based funds have given very poor returns. Is
it advisable for investors to move out of such funds? Or should AMCs dilute the
theme and make it more broad-based?
The performance of infrastructure funds has been
disappointing over the past one year. The key learning is that infrastructure
is not just about constructing projects. It is also not about taking up several
projects and over-stretching yourself. It's about viable business with some
cash-flow and investments.
The key takeaway for us is to invest in more mature
companies like NTPC or GAIL or ONGC. It may be better to invest in slightly
mature companies which have gone through the initial learning cycle. Going
ahead, many of the funds and fund houses will not replicate the strategy they
did in their previous tenure. They may back the large and stable companies than
investing in smaller companies for growth purpose. So all this means that the
rate of appreciation will come down and equally the volatility of the
portfolio.
If you ask me whether infrastructure as theme is viable or
not, the answer is it is very viable, provided you are selective. The second
phase we are talking about is selectivity.
You should hold the right companies rather than looking at
the sector. So, the first leg was about sectors but the second phase is about
companies.
Investors buy theme funds for high growth. If you start
buying only large-cap stocks, then the purpose may be defeated?
I did not imply that we will be looking only at large-cap
companies. It's about selecting the right companies for the portfolio.
So if you have a company that is conservative and have
profitable projects, we would prefer those instead of companies that take on
number of unviable projects. It is about selecting the right companies and the
right set of business models rather than having high-growth companies only for
growth prospects.
So, from an investor's perspective since they have taken the
conscious risk of investing in a theme fund or sector fund, unless their risk
perception has changed, they should continue in the fund.
Schemes that invest in large cap stocks are now struggling
to reward investors. Is it due to high valuations?
Equity markets go through extremely good and weak periods.
It's based on what point in time you set the valuation.
Needless to say, we are in extremely challenging local
environment and that had impacted the performance of key companies. Second
point is that our political stability is also questioned and investor's
sentiment is also low.
Retail participation has been very low for several years now
and domestic inflows into equity are also low. The inflows are coming only
through FIIs and they can be volatile. You also have a situation where the
interest rate offered is at 10-10.5 per cent and it will dissuade any
risk-taking.
Why should any investor walk in and invest in equity with
all these risks when you can get assured return for 3-4 years. That is the key
deterrent as we stand today. When the interest rate eases and comes down I am
sure the risk appetite will come back into the market albeit slowly and money
would move into equity market.
For how many quarters do you anticipate the Indian markets
will be under pressure due to macro-economic concerns, domestic and global?
I expect weakness in the Indian markets to continue for next
6-12 months. But most of the weakness is internally created. On reversing some
of the issues we can move forward quicker than anticipated.
The key thing we need to bear in the mind is that reduction
in subsidies of petrol, fuel and fertilisers will help release of lot money for
government's core development activities.
We can be cynical about this, but nevertheless what we need
to bear in the mind is that government borrowing for petrol subsidy is going to
come down when the fuel prices are passed on to public.
If we are little lucky and the crude oil price falls below
$90, losses of oil marketing companies and State Electricity Boards are likely
to come down significantly.
With concerns in the banking space which segment — public or
private banks — do you expect will perform better?
For the PSU banks incentive to maintain asset quality and
growth is not so high given that these banks' Chairmen keep changing often, and
their commitment is only for 3-5 years. So the bank's growth and profitability
can swing extremely. It is one of the key concerns I have in the PSU space. So
it's more individual-centric than system driven.
The same holds good for private banks also, but there exists
continuity of the same management and the targets are fairly aligned with the
shareholders' expectations. For the long term I would bet on private banks.
Sundaram Energy Fund was launched almost four years ago, but
is still below its face value. What should investors do with the fund? Are you
planning any mandate change?
We are not planning to change the mandate of the fund. What
has happened is very unfortunate. One, many of the projects are getting delayed
due to environmental issues. Reliance Industries, which is a major holding in
the portfolio, is getting impacted due to its KG D6 issue.
So, what has really happened in the energy space is that the
stock prices have fallen 40-50 per cent. Considering that, our performance is
satisfactory. It could have been far worse.
We have taken course correction along the way. But are we
happy about our performance? Clearly not. I think some of these will reverse
over time. Clearly it will take a minimum of one and a half years in terms of
projects and delivery, given the significant project delays. Everything has
slipped in the past two years. That was one reason why promoters, companies and
fund under-delivered.
Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/features/investment-world/mutual-funds/article2482455.ece