Experts expect domestic flows after market touches new high
Even as foreign investors have stepped up buying, owing to
the announcement of bold reforms in the last few trading sessions, domestic
institutional investors (DIIs) continue to sell.
Market experts believe portfolio flows from foreign
investors would remain strong due to reforms and stimulus programmes announced
by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). However, DII
flows could continue to languish due to redemption pressure on mutual funds and
lack of retail participation in the market.
In the last three trading sessions, foreign institutional
investors (FIIs) bought net shares worth Rs 6,135 crore after the government
increased diesel prices and opened up the retail and aviation sectors to
foreign direct investment (FDI). In contrast, DIIs, which include entities like
mutual funds and insurance companies, sold net shares worth nearly Rs 2,200
crore during these three sessions.
Strategists at several foreign brokerages like Morgan
Stanley, Citigroup and Deutsche Bank have increased their Sensex targets due to
the improved domestic sentiment and the global liquidity scenario. Some
brokerages expect a rise of about 10 per cent from the current levels, with the
Sensex surpassing 20,000.
According to Securities and Exchange Board of India data, so
far this year, FIIs have invested about Rs 61,000 crore ($13.7 billion) in
Indian equities. However, DIIs sold shares worth about Rs 32,000 crore during
the same period — the highest since 2005.
In a report, Aditya Narain, head of India research,
Citigroup, stated the market would continue to rise, primarily due to foreign
flows. He added domestic flows would only start coming in after the market rose
another 10 per cent from its current levels.
Experts say flows from retail investors and DIIs would
improve once the market stabilises or crosses the previous all-time high. “When
the 2003 rally began, domestic investors started coming into the market only
when the market crossed its then all-time high in 2004. This time, too,
domestic investors would start investing only after the market crosses its
all-time high. I expect this to happen in the January-March period next year,”
said Sandip Sabharwal, chief executive (portfolio management services),
Prabhudas Lilladher.
“The way the market has moved up, it has not given anybody a
chance to enter. Domestic participation would only be seen if the market
stabilises at current levels,” said Prashanth Prabhakaran, president (retail
broking), India Infoline. “Equity mutual funds are facing huge redemption,
signalling fear is still there,” he added.
Heavy redemption pressure on equity mutual funds this year
also led to heavy selling by domestic institutions, especially mutual funds. In
August, equity mutual funds recorded their second-highest outflow — about Rs
2,300 crore. So far this year, net outflow from equity funds stands at about Rs
7,800 crore.
“The right time to invest was in December 2011, when there
was gloom and doom. Since then, the market has given returns of about 20 per
cent. Unfortunately, the money comes only after the market moves up,” said
Anand Shah, chief investment officer, BNP Paribas Asset Management India.
Source: http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/fii-inflows-strong-domestic-institutions-continue-to-sell/486867/