Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Why the world has faith in gold

Gold continues to remain in a primary bull market since the last decade

Gold as an asset class is in vogue again with prices reaching a new high in rupee terms. With rising prices, the usual pitch from so called experts too has risen as to how gold is in an “ultimate bubble” phase and is all set to go bust. Frankly, it is nothing new. In 2010, George Soros, one of world’s most accomplished investors, dumped his gold holdings at around $1,200 per ounce but interestingly, he recently surprised the markets by deciding to reinvest into gold at $1,600 per ounce. Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund manager, also added gold allocation in its commodity fund as prices dipped lower around $1,500 per ounce. They are not the only ones to have turned buyers from being sellers. Central banks across the world including Russia, China and other emerging nations have become net buyers after a long time. According to a recent report from World Gold Council, June quarter recorded official sector (central bank sector) gold purchase was more than double compared with the purchases made in the same period last year. If you consider the fact that gold represents only around 1% of total global investment assets, it seems crazy to be not invested in the asset. It is thus important to understand what is driving gold prices before drawing conclusions on the future course of prices.

To start with one has to understand that strictly speaking gold has no value as it is a non-income generating asset. With no cash flows associated with gold it is always at a disadvantage to other income generating assets including real estate. Till few years back it was not widely accepted as an asset class because either fixed income or equity alternatively used to do well. Investor perceptions have, however, undergone a change in the recent past. In this era of negative real interest rates, investors are looking out for assets to protect their investments. While Indians have been among the largest savers, the trend is fast changing as deposit rates have remained below inflation (CPI) for some time now, rendering the real interest rate negative. The combination of low capital gains and low returns in equities on account of a “stagflationary” environment has further reduced investment options. Gold thrives well in this environment, especially given its enviable track record of 11 straight years of positive returns.

Gold continues to remain in a primary bull market since the last decade. History has shown that commodity prices move in cycles of 16-17 years which might mean four-five more years of gold bull market yet to capture. One also should not forget that corrections in bull markets of around 30% are a normal occurrence and have been observed in the past. Investors need to be aware that the last leg of any bull market is often the most profitable and the most volatile. Hence, one should periodically use corrections as opportunities and gain from investing in gold.

Indian investors, however, continue to remain puzzled that though globally gold prices are almost 10% below its all-time highs, the prices in rupee terms are at all-time highs. A large part of this can be attributed to fiscal mis-management in the country, which is reflected in 20% depreciation (yearly) of rupee. The recent doubling of import duty on gold has also led to investors paying higher for gold in rupee terms.

On the positive side, Indian investors are now exposed to more efficient investment options in gold. Other than most travelled route of physical gold or jewellery, mutual funds offer exposure to gold in different fund types such as hybrid funds, exchange-traded funds and fund of funds. Though we have seen demand from India dampening this year, we believe higher inflation would help retain demand in the long run. In India, inflation has played a crucial role in gold’s popularity as an inflation hedge. In addition, globally gold has become more a proxy of the political stupidity and hence a crisis hedge.

One would still ponder on the question: how high is high enough for gold? It is very difficult to answer that question given the fact that it doesn’t have a fundamental value attached to it. We believe that it isn’t the gold prices that are moving up; it is the value of currencies that is depreciating which is pushing gold prices higher. Gold prices act as good proxy to lack of confidence in the fiat currencies. The crisis which started with companies being under financial stress has now moved on to countries. Gold acts as a hedge for investors in such times. If one believed that the future is bright, businesses will pick up and the real interest rates will turn positive, would one still buy gold? The answer would be no. But in the current market environment where the US, the world’s largest economy, is running at more than 100% debt-to-GDP ratio and Europe is struggling to keep its union up and running, we can be reasonably comfortable in believing that good times are farther than they appear. Till then, have faith in gold!

Ritesh Jain is head of investments, Canara Robeco Asset Management Co. Ltd.

Source: http://www.livemint.com/Money/3w3MixfaIfkf2mEYEApBNJ/Why-the-world-has-faith-in-gold.html

We remain optimistic about Indian equities in long run: Nilesh Shetty

The month of August 2012 saw the BSE Sensex increase by 1.28% on a total return basis as compared to its level in previous month. The broader indices such as BSE 200 and BSE 500 underperformed the Sensex. IT, FMCG & Healthcare were among the sectors which performed better than the Index whilst cyclicals like Metals, Banking and Real Estate underperformed. Calendar year to date, the Sensex has seen an appreciation of 14.5% (total return basis).

India continues to attract significant FIIs flows, with the month of August seeing net FII inflows of USD 1.95 billion. So far in Calendar 2012, FIIs have purchased equity stocks worth USD 12.2 billion while Domestic Mutual funds have been the net sellers in equities to the tune of USD 1.85 billion. Indian rupee appreciated 0.2% during the month. News flow from Europe continues to remain troubling with the European financial system in a state of flux. Member nations face financial troubles while the European banking system remains in a state of turmoil.

On the domestic front, the month of August saw release of Q1FY13 GDP numbers. At 5.5%, even though it was above consensus expectations, it is still below IndiaĆ¢€™s trend growth as well as substantially below the high GDP numbers of 8.5%-9.0% witnessed between FY05-FY08. WPI Inflation data was slightly subdued, primarily on the back of lower fuel prices. However, consumer level inflation remains elevated around 10% range. The rise in international crude prices remains a matter of concern and can possibly put further pressure on the Inflation. On the political side, announcement of P Chidambaram as the Finance Minister offers some hope of policy traction. However, the stalling of parliament after the CAG report on Coal allotments suggests, any major policy decisions in the current political environment is highly unlikely,`` said Nilesh Shetty, Associate Fund Manager, Quantum Long Term Equity Fund & Quantum Multi Asset Fund.

We remain optimistic about Indian equities in the long run. Despite the double digit rally in Sensex for Calendar year 2012, we see equity valuations as reasonable. We remain hopeful of India continuing to record GDP growth of 6.5-7% over next many years, irrespective of global uncertainties. Investors can consider allocating higher to equities at this point of time for good returns in the long term,`` he added.

Source: http://www.myiris.com/newsCentre/storyShow.php?fileR=20120910170446715&dir=2012/09/10

All you need to know about investing in exchange-traded funds

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which offer flexibility of a stock and protection of a fund , are catching on big time with Indian investors.

ETFs, which invest in stocks comprising an index, trade on exchanges. Financial planners are increasingly recommending ETFs to investors who have long-term goals and want to invest in equity without taking too much risk. This is reflected in average assets under management in the retail ETF category, which have risen from Rs 59 crore in March 2009 to Rs 394 crore in March 2012, according to the Association of Mutual Funds in India.

However, equity ETF volumes, unlike that of gold ETFs, are very small compared to the mutual fund industry's total assets. "ETFs became popular with gold ETFs, even though gold ETFs came much later than equity ETFs," says Lakshmi Iyer, head of products and fixed income, Kotak Mutual Fund.

An ETF invests in stocks that comprise an index. The proportion in which it will allocate money may be the same as individual stocks' weight in the index or differ. For example, a Nifty ETF will invest in 50 stocks comprising the Nifty, most likely in accordance with the weight of individual stocks in the index.

The investor can buy/sell on the exchange without approaching the fund house. Such trades attract a brokerage.

Unlike a regular fund, where investors can buy a fraction of the unit, ETFs are available in multiples of one. Big investors can directly approach the fund house for sale/purchase if the lot size is big and the units are not available in the market. The lot size is determined by the fund house. Usually, it is more than Rs 15-20 lakh.

INDICATIVE NAV
Just like a mutual fund, ETFs have a net asset value (NAV), the price of each unit at the end of the day. But as ETFs trade in real time, funds provide an indicative NAV, or iNAV, which is the real-time NAV of an ETF. iNAV may be different from the market price.

Remember that buying or selling an ETF involves brokerage.

ADVANTAGE INSTITUTIONS ETF prices depend on demand and supply on exchanges. "When there is more demand than the units on sale, the market price may be 25-50 basis points more than the iNAV. If there are more sellers than buyers, the price may be 25-50 basis points less," says Rajnish Rastogi, senior fund manager and co-head, equities, Motilal Oswal AMC.

Fund houses display iNAVs on their websites. iNAVs may be lower or higher than the market prices. So, there is a possibility of arbitrage. However, institutional or big investors move in fast to plug any price difference, putting small investors at a disadvantage.

Another thing to be kept in mind is that an investor can buy on an exchange and sell to the asset management company, or AMC, or sell on an exchange after buying from an AMC to gain from arbitrage

"The arbitrage opportunity may be there only if the difference between the market price and the iNAV is above 50-75 basis points. If not, no party will make money due to brokerage, securities transaction tax and inventory-carrying costs," says Rastogi.

However, a retail investor may not be able gain from arbitrage due to the difference between the iNAV and the market price. This is because AMCs buy in lot sizes. So, he will have to approach a marketmaker

Source: http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/all-about-investing-in-exchange-traded-funds/1/187511.html

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