Tuesday, October 20, 2009

'Pharma, infra & banking look very attractive'

A steep correction looks unlikely, given that there has been no reckless build-up of positions this time, says Sunil Singhania , executive vice-president (equities), Reliance Mutual Fund. At the same time, investors should be extremely choosy about the new issues they are investing in since many overpriced offerings have been hitting the market, says Mr Singhania. In an interview with ET , he says pharma, banking and infrastructure are the sectors to watch out for. Excerpts:


You are known for your aggressive cash calls, sometimes as high as 35% of the portfolio value in a few schemes. Isn’t that a risky bet in a rising market?
Past 2-3 months have been very challenging in terms of identifying the right stocks. And it looks as like it will remain that way for some time. We have to deploy money knowing fully that near-term valuations are stretched, and that risk on the downside is higher. We have cut down our cash positions significantly, though they differ across schemes. In diversified schemes, we are sitting on cash of between 4-14%. In banking and pharma funds, it is 3-4%, in the power fund it is 16-17%, while in the infrastructure fund, it is 2-3%. But the cash component should not be viewed in isolation. We deploy a fair bit of it in (stock/index)options, which helps us ride the volatile phase of the market, and even beat the market.



Which are the sectors that you are bullish on?
We are very bullish on infrastructure. There is huge latent demand for infrastructure. Also, the government is realising that good infrastructure is becoming an election issue. From a foreign investor’s perspective, this is a sector where one can investment a sizeable sum and get decent double-digit returns. We are also positive on banking. Notwithstanding short-term concerns over rising g-sec yields (and therefore falling bond prices), banking services are underpenetrated, and valuations of bank stocks are cheap compared with allied financial services players. Within the sector, we like PSU banks. We are positive on the pharma sector, and see huge opportunities locally as well as globally. Total pharma sales in India are about Rs 30,000 crore, while sales of Pfizer’s drug Lipitor alone are around Rs 50,000 crore.



What is your outlook on the market from a 3-6 month perspective?
We are cautiously positive on the market. Valuations are not cheap any longer, and big gains look unlikely near term. At the same time, we do not expect any drastic correction either. Investors have been very cautious this time around. Most mutual funds have used the recent rally to book profits. There has been no reckless build-up of positions by traders, as was the case in the previous bull run. Also, traditionally, the October-December period has been good for the Indian stock market.



What should the investor be cautious of? Any factor(s) that could trigger a deeper-than-expected correction?
There are some worrying signs, especially on the capital raising front (qualified institutional placements/ initial public offerings). Lot of poor quality paper is finding its way into the market. Also, many IPOs are being mispriced at the upper end.
The global economy is still not out of the woods. There is a lot of liquidity sloshing around at the moment, which makes everything appear good. But what happens once central banks across the world start pulling out the stimulus money? That is the key question. Some people may argue that a weak recovery in the global economy is good for India, since it will also keep oil prices low. Yet, one must remember that the Indian market had its best phase when oil was climbing from $27 to $150 a barrel.




SIP investment: Better than one-go

Systematic investment plan (SIP) investors have reason to cheer. The ongoing rally in equity market has pushed up the one-year return on such investments sizeably, compared to lump-sum investments.
The comeback has even pushed up annualised returns on SIPs over a three-year period. Those SIP investors who opted for mid-cap-oriented funds have reaped a richer harvest then their large-cap peers.
Business Line picked up the top five large- and mid-cap schemes that have a long-term track record and analysed performance over one- and three-year periods. Among the large-cap schemes either through lump-sum or SIPs, the HDFC Top 200 Fund tops the return charts over one- and three-year periods.
Those who stayed invested in SIPs over the past year notched up absolute returns of 140 per cent while those who preferred lump-sum investment could have earned 90 per cent, substantially lower than those who bought SIPs.
The other top performers for the one-year period are Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity, which clocked an absolute return of 130 per cent, and Magnum Contra with 123 per cent. Both the schemes returned 40-50 percentage points more on SIPs compared to lump-sum investments.
In the mid-cap space the return generated by Birla Sun Life MidCap and Sundaram BNP Paribas Select MidCap were at 173 per cent, while those who made lump-sum investments a year ago, would have got returns of 108 per cent and 101 per cent respectively.
The SIP return of Franklin India Prima Fund and Magnum Midcap were identical at 147 per cent. Returns on lump-sums too were identical over a one-year period, at 86 per cent.

Timing makes difference
The returns generated by Franklin India Prima Fund, Magnum Midcap and HSBC Mid cap over a three-year period still look low despite their stellar one-year performance. The three-year annualised return of the all the three schemes is 6-14 per cent on SIPs and 0.5-4.0 per cent for lump-sum investment.
The returns from SIPs buttresses the point that timing of entry and continuing with investments in a falling market made a big difference to returns.

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Aggrasive Portfolio

  • Principal Emerging Bluechip fund (Stock picker Fund) 11%
  • Reliance Growth Fund (Stock Picker Fund) 11%
  • IDFC Premier Equity Fund (Stock picker Fund) (STP) 11%
  • HDFC Equity Fund (Mid cap Fund) 11%
  • Birla Sun Life Front Line Equity Fund (Large Cap Fund) 10%
  • HDFC TOP 200 Fund (Large Cap Fund) 8%
  • Sundram BNP Paribas Select Midcap Fund (Midcap Fund) 8%
  • Fidelity Special Situation Fund (Stock picker Fund) 8%
  • Principal MIP Fund (15% Equity oriented) 10%
  • IDFC Savings Advantage Fund (Liquid Fund) 6%
  • Kotak Flexi Fund (Liquid Fund) 6%

Moderate Portfolio

  • HDFC TOP 200 Fund (Large Cap Fund) 11%
  • Principal Large Cap Fund (Largecap Equity Fund) 10%
  • Reliance Vision Fund (Large Cap Fund) 10%
  • IDFC Imperial Equity Fund (Large Cap Fund) 10%
  • Reliance Regular Saving Fund (Stock Picker Fund) 10%
  • Birla Sun Life Front Line Equity Fund (Large Cap Fund) 9%
  • HDFC Prudence Fund (Balance Fund) 9%
  • ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan (Dynamic Fund) 9%
  • Principal MIP Fund (15% Equity oriented) 10%
  • IDFC Savings Advantage Fund (Liquid Fund) 6%
  • Kotak Flexi Fund (Liquid Fund) 6%

Conservative Portfolio

  • ICICI Prudential Index Fund (Index Fund) 16%
  • HDFC Prudence Fund (Balance Fund) 16%
  • Reliance Regular Savings Fund - Balanced Option (Balance Fund) 16%
  • Principal Monthly Income Plan (MIP Fund) 16%
  • HDFC TOP 200 Fund (Large Cap Fund) 8%
  • Principal Large Cap Fund (Largecap Equity Fund) 8%
  • JM Arbitrage Advantage Fund (Arbitrage Fund) 16%
  • IDFC Savings Advantage Fund (Liquid Fund) 14%

Best SIP Fund For 10 Years

  • IDFC Premier Equity Fund (Stock Picker Fund)
  • Principal Emerging Bluechip Fund (Stock Picker Fund)
  • Sundram BNP Paribas Select Midcap Fund (Midcap Fund)
  • JM Emerging Leader Fund (Multicap Fund)
  • Reliance Regular Saving Scheme (Equity Stock Picker)
  • Biral Mid cap Fund (Mid cap Fund)
  • Fidility Special Situation Fund (Stock Picker)
  • DSP Gold Fund (Equity oriented Gold Sector Fund)